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The week ahead: Fed, ECB and BoJ set Big Tech rates and earnings in the spotlight

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

While many of us are packing shorts and swimsuits for a summer getaway, spare a thought for the suits from the US, EU and Japanese central banks whose comments and actions will be the focus of market attention over the next few days.

The Federal Open Market Committee begins its final interest rate-setting meeting on Tuesday with an announcement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon, and the European Central Bank follows a day later. Both are expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.

The Fed’s announcement will focus on signals that Chairman Jay Powell is sending about the possibility of another rate hike to fight inflation.

Japan is the joker of the peloton. Markets rolled back aggressive expectations of a rate hike for the Bank of Japan. But the rise in the headline inflation rate last week, topping US inflation for the first time in eight years, raised the odds of a surprise rate hike after a long period of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Big Tech is the big theme on this week’s busy earnings calendar – more than 150 US companies will report earnings this week. An edited list of major players is provided below.

Alphabet, Microsoft And Metaplatforms face very different challenges, but artificial intelligence is a common concern. That won’t translate to revenue just yet, but analysts are hoping to get some insight from this week’s numbers on when AI is likely to become a big factor, as well as an understanding of the possible costs in terms of capital expenditures and margin pressure.

These questions concern all investors. Gains in Big Tech company stocks have been driving the US stock market rally this year, so if those earnings disappoint, the broader market will be vulnerable to a correction.

One more thing. . .

Someone will celebrate this week. British pop icon Mick Jagger turns 80 on Wednesday (Ruby), giving me an excuse to share one of Lucy Kellaway’s great essays on FT, explaining the Rolling Stones’ enduring attraction and how their live performances have matured with age.

What do you think? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or if you received it in your inbox click reply.

Main economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of corporate reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/Cips/HCOB Industrials and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data

  • Germany: monthly retail sales figures

  • Results: Cranswick Q1 commercial declaration, Domino’s pizza Q2, Julius Baer H1, Money supermarket H1, Phillips Q2, Ryanair Q1, Vodafone Q1 Trade Update

Tuesday

  • IMF World Economic Outlook Update

  • Germany: Ifo survey on the business climate

  • Indonesia: interest rate decision

  • South Korea: Q2 GDP figures

  • Results: Alphabet Q2, Alstom Q1, Akzo Nobel Q2, Brown & Brown Q2, Compass Group Q3 trade update, Corning Q2, Dassault Systems Q2, Deutsche Borse H1, Games Workshop AF, General Engines Q2, Kimberly Clark Q2, Kuehne+Nagel H1, LVMH H1, Microsoft Q4, Friendship Commercial update and general meeting of the first quarter, Randstad Q2, Reach H1, Remy Cointreau First quarter sales, Snap Q2, Spotify Q2, Tata Engines Q1, UniCredit H1, Unilever H1, Verizon Communications Q2, Visa Q3, Tourbillon Q2, Wickes Group Q1 Trade Update

Wednesday

  • Australia: June Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate Data

  • United States: Federal Open Market Committee announcement in July on interest rates

  • Results: Airbus H1, AT&T Q2, Santander Bank Q2, Boeing Q2, British American Tobacco Q2, Crossroads Q2, Chubb Q2, Coca-Cola Company Q2, Danone H1, German Bank H1, eBay Q2, Enel H1, Equine Q2, GSK Q2, Heathrow H1, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Q2, Just eat take out H1, Lloyds banking group H1, Metaplatforms Q2, michelin H1, Nissan engine Q1, Reckitt Benckiser H1, Rio Tinto H1, Seagate Technology Q4, Stellantide H1, Union Pacific Q2

THURSDAY

  • EU: European Central Bank interest rate announcement

  • Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey

  • United States: Q2 GDP and consumer spending figures

  • Results: Anglo-American H1, ArcelorMittal Q2, Sabadell Bank Q2, Barclays H1, Beazley S1 Commercial Update, BNP Paribas Q2, Bristol Myers Squibb Q2, Britvic Q3 trade report, LV Group Q1 Commercial Update, Casino Group H1, Centric H1, CMC Markets Q1 Commercial Update, Comcast Q2, SVC Group business update, EDF H1, Elementis H1, Ford Motor Company Q2, Foxtons H1, Fraser Group AF, Geox H1, Hammerson H1, inchcape H1, Information H1, Intel Q2, TVI H1, Jupiter Fund Management H1, Kering H1, L’Oreal H1, McDonald’s Q2, Mercedes-Benz Q2, Mobico Group H1, Nestle H1, Renault H1, Rentokil Initial H1, rock H1, Wise Q3 trade update, Samsung Electronics Q1, Schröders H1, Shell Q2, Airlines to Singapore Q1, TotalEnergies H1, Unibail Rodamco Westfield H1, Vivendi H1, volkswagen H1, Willis Towers Watson Q2

Friday

  • France: GDP flash figures for Q2 and preliminary CPI and Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data for June

  • Germany: Preliminary CPI and HICP inflation figures for June

  • Japan: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting on interest rate decision

  • Spain: Q2 GDP figures

  • United States: personal income and expenditure figures for June

  • Results: Air France-KLM H1, aon Q2, Astra Zeneca H1, Aston Martin Lagonde H1, Bouygues H1, Capgemini H1, Chevron Q2, Colgate-Palmolive Q2, cooperative bank H1, CNH Industrial Q2, Eni H1, ExxonMobil Q2, AGI Q2, NatWest H1, Procter & Gamble Q4, Standard charter H1, T Rowe Award Q2, YouGov Trading statement for the year

Global Events

Finally, here’s a look at some of the other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

  • Australia: New Zealand, Tonga: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken begins tri-country tour to discuss regional security and cooperation and attend FIFA Women’s World Cup soccer tournament

  • United States: Hunter, the son of President Joe Biden, is due in federal court in Wilmington, Delaware to face tax and firearms charges.

  • Rolling Stones frontman Mick Jagger turns 80

THURSDAY

  • Korea: 70th anniversary of the armistice signed during the Korean War, although North Korea and South Korea officially remain at war.

  • Russia: St. Petersburg hosts the second Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, starting today.

  • United States: President Joe Biden welcomes Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to the White House.

Friday

SATURDAY

  • UK: 2023 Cowes Week, the biggest and longest running international sailing regatta in the world, begins on the Isle of Wight.

Sunday

  • Central African Republic: referendum on President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s intention to modify the constitution and remove term limits, allowing him to run for a third term in 2025.

  • Russian Navy Day, when the country showcases its latest warships, weapons and aircraft.

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